How long do you think it will be before we see successors to the Xbox 360 and PS3? They're now five and four years old respectively, and under normal circumstances it would seem like we must be getting close. So what do you guys think? Fall of 2012 maybe? Or do you think MS and Sony will try to keep these consoles around a full ten years and launch new ones in 2015? Any thoughts on what kind of hardware we might see in the new consoles? One reason I think they may hold out a full ten years is the bad economy. The PS3 and 360 were expensive and a tough sell back when they launched, and that was in a good economy. I also don't think developers are really complaining about these consoles being underpowered and holding them back the way they were around this time with the PS2 and Xbox. The PS3 and 360 seem adequately powered for at least a few more years.
I don't think there's that big of a rush at the moment. Nintendo could shake things up if they released an HD console that was significantly more powerful than the PS3 or 360, but otherwise I think the 360 and PS3 are fine where there're at. PC developers have an opportunity to grow their market a bit if the impress with their technical advantage, which is huge at this point. I don't think they'll create much of a problem for consoles at the moment, however, as I think the vast majority of consumers tend to be more concerned about simplicity and especially price over technical advantages.
I'm expecting Nintendo to reveal their new machine this July at E3..... Microsoft and Sony are going to be different altogether. I have a gut feeling that by July 2012, Microsoft will be talking about their new hardware but probably not shown anything to the Public. Sony will probably start talking about succesors to the PS3 early 2013. But yeah, I think the current gen are certainly powerful enough at the minute. What I've been trying to figure out is the next new gimmick..we've had HD, HD Storage, Motion Controls..I don't know where we can go from there. Literally 2 minutes after posting this, I found this article: http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/exclusive-microsoft-looking-to-2015-for-next-gen-xbox-release/46247
It seems like it makes sense for Nintendo to be the first one out of the gate with a replacement, but that it would probably be comparable in many ways to the PS3/360 in terms of processing power. In other words, they're not going to try to leapfrog Sony or MS in terms of the graphics, but add the HD and try to undercut them on price once again. I tend to wonder if they might go with multicore ARM chips this time around. MS and Sony? I can easily go along with a 2014/2015-ish timeframe. If anything, they've tried hard to keep coming up with new reasons for customers to want to spend $400+ on their new HD console...larger and larger HDD's and premium SKU's, plus the addition of motion control accessories. That doesn't seem like a strategy geared towards quick replacement. They need to make some profit on these things, and the adoption rate of HD consoles was definitely slower than they originally anticipated.
2015 seems indeed a good time-frame for the next Xbox and playstation. Graphical and tech evolution doesnt seem to be imporatant at the moment anyway, and games tend to sell very well, even if their having the same graphics from year 1 (CoD). Regarding the PS4, would sony sell it at a lower price? I remember reading somwhere that they 'learned a lesson' with the PS3's high price point/high-end hardware (for being console). 10 year life-span seems fine, only disadvantage is that we wont see much of an improvement in graphics as we would with new consoles.
That much is obvious, but games should continue to improve visually up until the end of the console's life, much like the previous gen.
I don't think there will be as big of a jump as there was from PS2 to PS3. If there was a way to significantly upgrade just the RAM and GPU, I think the PS3 would be improved quite a bit. As for a PS4, I'm not sure if they will stick with their current architecture (upgraded obviously) or go with something simpler. I think they'll be OK as long as they don't try something completely new and freak all the developers out again. The need plenty more RAM if they are going with the Cell design again, but they would at least have some basic programming tools to use instead of starting from scratch, which was a mess for awhile.
Am sure those people that work on the PS4 know what their doing.... Another thing, i think their gonna consider their security this time, PS3 held out long, but once it got hacked, it was totally unstoppeble.
2015 is starting to make sense for MS/Sony, though I would like to see successors in 2013 personally. By 2015 we should see a pretty large leap in hardware capabilities. Right now we'd be looking at 4x the RAM of current consoles, in 2015, 8x is very likely.
I think I'm fine with the PS3 and 360 until maybe 2014 or 2015. I think the developers for those consoles are doing fine with what they have. I'd rather wait a bit longer so we can see a bigger boost in tech. I don't want to buy new consoles every few years.
Launch Dates: Wii Wacker HD - Summer/Fall 2012 Xbox Trinity - November 2013 PlayStation 4 - Pfft! Who cares? You want the specs too? Wii Wacker HD - Two mobile phones in a jam sandwich. (low end + touch screen) Xbox Trinity - One hell of a mamma-jamma. PlayStation 4 - I haven't given PS4 any thought yet. It'll probably try to be similar to the next Xbox but fall short in a number of ways.